Based on the latest oceanic and atmospheric data, AccuWeather expert meteorologists believe El Niño conditions are now established in the tropical Pacific.
“The sea surface temperatures are quickly rising in the equatorial Pacific, the region that is measured for El Niño. The latest weekly numbers are averaging out just over 0.5 degrees Celsius, compared to the long-term historic average, which is the primary criteria for El Niño,” said AccuWeather expert meteorologist Paul Pastelok.“Most El Niños and La Niñas begin in the fall. This El Niño will most likely begin soon and strengthen quickly.”
What does an El Niño mean for you?
- El Niño can create higher than average wind shear across the Atlantic Basin, lessening the potential tropical development
- Higher Pacific Ocean temperatures can increase the potential for heavy rain events in the Southwest U.S., including California
- El Niño can also create drier conditions in some regions in the U.S. including those already experiencing severe drought
Hurricane Season: Fewer named storms, but risk remains
El Niño generates wind shear more frequently across the Atlantic Basin, which inhibits tropical systems from organizing and intensifying. AccuWeather’s 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast projects 11 to 16 named storms.
“This El Niño will likely reduce Atlantic tropical activity even more. With the El Niño’s arrival early in the hurricane season, we are now leaning closer to 11 named storms rather than 16. Inversely, the El Niño will increase eastern and central Pacific storm activity by fueling systems in the region,” said AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
Though the number of named storms could be lower than average, it does not eliminate the threat a high impact storm. During El Niño years, homegrown hurricanes that develop close to the U.S. coastline pose a heightened risk because they leave little time for preparation. It takes only one storm to cause catastrophic damage.
AccuWeather experts believe there is a 30-40 percent chance this turns into rare “Super El Niño” meaning there is a higher confidence that El Niño conditions will last through 2026 and even into 2027.
“Based on our analysis, AccuWeather expects NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center may declare an El Niño imminently, perhaps during its scheduled update Thursday, June 11,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter.